Are You Overfitting Your Trading—or Just Overthinking It?

May 1, 2024

Here’s a hard truth: most trading strategy tweaks aren’t “improvements.” They’re overfits. Tuning for past market behavior that won’t repeat.

This happens most when traders chase perfection instead of consistency.

Watch for These Overfitting Red Flags

1. You change parameters after every 10 trades.That’s not optimization—it’s chasing ghosts.

2. Your strategy only works in one pair or one asset.True edges are portable. Fragile ones break outside the lab.

3. You never trade live for long.You’re always “backtesting something new.” Paralysis disguised as progress.

Optimize for Real-World Noise

A good system thrives in mess, not just hindsight.Let’s test your strategy’s robustness the way real markets demand it.